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  1. Well guys, we are in the thick of it now. Dog days are rapidly approaching and besides common variance, we mostly know what we are getting with the arms we have. Data has stabilized and the stuff is going to be largely static moving forward. Some guys will return, but there won't be a bounty of difference makers--if they can make it back with all their stuff intact. I attempted to integrate the guys working back from injury into the ranks last month and generally didn't like how it turned out, so I decided to make an injury tier with only guys I project to possibly get back in the next 4 weeks or so. I did include a few currently injured pitchers into the list, but only a few that I had a higher level of confidence in for a more seamless return. It certainly matters what a guy has done thus far, or what their track record is--so long as the stuff and command are present. I always say it, but guys have rough turns and sometimes it lingers. I won't overreact to smaller samples without evidence that portends to a possible skill degradation. I watch a lot of games and tons of pitcher specific tape to try and marry up results (or lack thereof) with the metric data of their repertoire. This list represents my level best attempt at gauging value for the next month--basically to the AS break. As per usual, it is points league forward but can be generally applied to all formats of play. Thanks for reading! I really enjoy being able to produce these and thanks very much to Mr BIG @Bettor In Green for the platform and the mods for keeping this place in order! I would really appreciate you supporting my work if you think it's helpful and you are able: https://venmo.com/u/St_Steven TOEING THE RUBBER RANKS by Steve Ulrich (St. Steven) THE JUNE SP RANKS 1. Zack Wheeler- just fantastic and the team is rolling 2. Tarik Skubal- some softer contact hits lately doesn't dissuade me at all 3. Corbin Burnes- might be close to finding that true ace gear now 4. Luis Castillo- he looks ready for his usual summer 5. Tyler Glasnow- just stay healthy and the results will continue 6. Max Fried- it's scary that he's still dialing it in and getting mostly great results 7. Shota Imanaga- they messed with his routine, so I don't think it was all regression 8. Logan Webb- we're getting close to him beginning a great run 9. Paul Skenes- nobody had him higher last month and I am fine with that being the case again 10. Freddy Peralta- the stuff is all plenty present and command will come 11. Chris Sale- some variance got to him last turn, everything else was there 12. Joe Ryan- HRs are part of the package, stuff is well up and he will bounce back 13. Cole Ragans- just missing a little bit on secondaries, he can cover it up until they fully return 14. Aaron Nola- the team context and his floor raise the overall profile greatly for me 15. Luis Gil- I bumped him up last month on a hunch that command was sharpening, now it's a full on breakout 16. George Kirby- inconsistencies aside, he's on the precipice of a big time summer run imho 17. Jared Jones- I have plenty of faith that he can now adjust, stuff is too amazing 18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto- this might be slightly unfair, his floor is super valuable 19. Sonny Gray- he's gassing himself by 5th inning too often and it has me a little nervous 20. Garrett Crochet- this guy never looks tired, absolute horse even when battling command a little 21. Pablo Lopez- it will almost certainly come all the way back, but can't ignore issues 22. Justin Steele- great buy low if some owners are only following the lines 23. Dylan Cease- same here, stuff is all there just battling some variance 24. Logan Gilbert- he's really close to getting it all together, but still has later game issues 25. Tanner Houck- what a rock for the rotation with killer floor/ceiling combo and grounders galore 26. Kyle Bradish- I think the floor/ceiling combo will provide very good value on this team 27. Kevin Gausman- he goes through periods like this and usually finds his way out 28. MacKenzie Gore- hopefully folks listened from the beginning, his stuff has leapt forward and results are showing 29. Jack Flaherty- I still think consistency will be a problem, but can't deny how sweet the breakers look 30. Ranger Suarez- regression should not be a major deterrent here, just needs good health fortune 31. Grayson Rodriguez- the stuff makes me want to go higher but command isn't fully ready quite yet 32. Bryan Woo- this is tricky but I tend to believe this arm stuff is just a phase and his stuff/command/team is worth the risk 33. Walker Buehler- it's not been pretty but the quality of his stuff gives me faith he comes out of this soon enough 34. Framber Valdez- track record is so strong and makes me think buying low is gonna net a true difference maker 35. Seth Lugo- His arsenal/command can fend off some of the regression and I think he keeps things rolling well enough 36. Nick Lodolo- I am a big fan even if FA is more average and home park is rough, secondaries and now sinker are really strong 37. Jose Berrios- getting back on board a bit, just have to deal with usual highs and lows 38. Bryce Miller- good feeling he is ready to really breakout, split and sweeper are so close to emerging 39. Carlos Rodon- team context is really pushing him, but stuff is flashing vintage type levels fueling my optimism 40. Zac Gallen- groin injury stinks but not seeing it's the severe variety, stuff isn't fully there but he can be effective thru it 41. Nick Pivetta- this rank puts him in the circle of trust and his stuff/pitching game plan gives me confidence 42. Ryan Pepiot- the breakout was coming before the IL pause, I believe he's back on that trajectory now and expect a big rise up 43. Ronel Blanco- the secondaries are good enough to believe we can depend on him for the duration 44. Zack Littell- gets far too little respect, command marvels with above average stuff are the new market inefficiencies to profit on 45. Hunter Greene- it's such a mixed bag, FA is much better, slider has backed up, new pitches have actual promise 46. Zach Eflin- hopefully the little pause gets him back on track, he's an easy buy for me right now 47. Justin Verlander- getting by right now and might have another gear--given where he is with his arm, but lack of bat missing dings him 48. Kutter Crawford- he can probably adjust back now, given his arsenal depth but the crude stuff is more of an above average guy 49. Nathan Eovaldi- health always proves elusive with him, but he can easily pitch another 20 spots up with his stuff 50. Cristopher Sanchez- sinker is really showing out right now, I think he'll be a big value moving forward if that is static 51. Reese Olson- sharp contender to fly up this list, dude has a 1.76 ERA since the end of last Aug and awesome breakers/offspeed 52. Reynaldo Lopez- proving the 'real deal' moniker I gave him, I see no reason his pitches can't keep this up unless he tires 53. Tanner Bibee- FA retooling has legit appeal and tangible results, secondaries were always plenty good 54. Michael King- can he really hold up, I want to believe but it's been too inconsistent from start-to-start, upside is big though 55. Yusei Kikuchi- the command has been fine, so I will assume this has just been some variance and he can get going again 56. Jesus Luzardo- hard one here, the FA is down but command is better, likely a worthy trade-off for now 57. Jordan Hicks- I'll gladly take what he's putting out and now the schedule should begin to ease up a tick 58. Nestor Cortes- floor is sort of low and ceiling is just high enough, esp given the team context 59. Bailey Ober- this is likely too much of an overreaction, still it's a snapshot of current value, but I expect him to pull out of this soon 60. Brandon Pfaadt- he's not someone I'd be actively seeking out, even if his numbers on the whole look solid 61. Marcus Stroman- getting the secondaries straightened out has aided immensely in his viability resurgence, as has the team 62. Brayan Bello- it's been mostly disappointing, regardless of possible excuses, the sinker simply isn't good enough right now 63. Gavin Stone- guy must really live right to get the good fortune he has, but he has executed and that's important 64. Ryan Weathers- he's quietly on a pretty good run here, bat missing has really ticked up and it appears mostly legit to me 65. Javier Assad- I'd attempt to extract whatever remaining value you can, I can't see how this lasts--it almost never does 66. Braxton Garrett- the stuff is still not quite back but he can really pitch and mix it up, plenty useful moving forward 67. Ben Brown- this might be too aggressive because it's really only one great pitch and a barely average FA that has been lucky 68. Mitch Keller- it's been better but also lucky, he is just good enough within the context of the pitching landscape to provide value 69. Erick Fedde- have to think he ends up dealt to a much better situation and he can absolutely be viable with his solid stuff/command 70. Hunter Brown- FA is well up in velo and well down in usage and results have followed, of course I am pleased and think he can be useful 71. Jose Soriano- I am definitely still onboard here, the stuff is too damn good and the command can still just creep forward a tick 72. Christian Scott- situation necessitated a drop but I am mostly encouraged by what I saw, survived fine when stuff was off and that's a good signal 73. Albert Suarez- stuff is more than solid and he seems like a barrel dancer, looks like some possible stay power on this team 74. Chris Bassitt- we may be at the cliff now, perhaps, but he's got such a deep arsenal that he can get going again, even with diminished stuff 75. Luis Severino- command is too shattershot for me to get on board with right now even if he can sometimes flash a little 76. Taj Bradley- plenty of theoretical upside here, just given the crude stuff and team, so I'd be more than fine taking a shot at them figuring it out 77. Jon Gray- he's here despite showing mostly pretty well most of year, just unsure how long the injury sidelines him but it seems minor 78. Tylor Megill- way more good than bad, so a guy I'd be keeping around and hoping he can retain a healthy stretch for a change 79. Jordan Montgomery- he may just sort of stink now, but there is enough of a track record that you can expect him to get out of this 80. Brady Singer- is he '22 or '23 is the question but it's probably just in between--which is where his xStats reside and I say regression is coming 81. Aaron Civale- heading out of the rough schedule stretch and his luck will improve, I'd be surprised if he wasn't an asset pending the health cooperates 82. Patrick Sandoval- I really like some of the changes I am seeing with him, nerfing the FA and the new sweeper appears to be a legit weapon offering 83. Charlie Morton- some turns are just going to get away from him, but overall I think he's going to be plenty useful enough and has enough upside 84. Mitchell Parker- I actually like quite a bit of what I am seeing from him, the split has emerged and can be that pivotal 3rd pitch 85. Spencer Schwellenbach- I've been a fan of his for awhile and think there's enough here for him to pitch up the list--even with a tough schedule 86. Jameson Taillon- I just don't think he's as good as some of the numbers/metrics suggest, he's definitely better than last year and has utility 87. Adam Mazur- seems like more of a mid-rotation type that might have some inconsistent results as he cuts his teeth, slider is plus 88. Spencer Turnball- I don't like his FA much but all the other four secondaries have really flashed and he needs to be reinserted back into rotation 89. Dane Dunning- he's pretty solid and suddenly missing bats/generating whiffs despite stuff limitations, good enough situation to roll with him for a bit 90. Tyler Anderson- just continues beating back regression with insane change and good locations but the correction will likely not be much fun 91. Kyle Harrison- upside is simply too minimal and downside is too rough, he needs some big adjustments to regain viability 92. Alec Marsh- he's just interesting enough with his stuff and this team to possibly warrant streaming appeal 93. Triston McKenzie- been a mixed bag lately and I just can't see him lasting at this point, but he can be used in plus matches 94. Spencer Arrighetti- he's been pretty good as of late and I think he is trending towards being able to be trusted in the right matchups 95. Ben Lively- remarkable numbers for the sinker ball specialist, even the sweeper and change look legit but I can't believe it's sustainable 96. Jordan Wicks- 3 rehab starts in and nearly stretched out, he has an elite change but no clue if they boot Brown or go to a 6 man for a bit 97. Andrew Abbott- the obvious regression has begun and I don't know if he can remain truly viable much longer, he needs to miss bats again in a hurry 98. Cole Irvin- ceiling isn't all that great but he should be able to provide some consistency and floor in this situation 99. Luis Medina- I am moderately intrigued because the FA has good velo and a different shape than last year, I like the curve with high spin and slider 100. Jake Irvin- his control is plus along with a very good curve, I think he'll get punished more because he's too middle/middle with other meh pitches 101. Frankie Montas- he's eating some innings but outside of a FA velo bump, nothing besides a sparsely used slider looks remotely decent 102. Bailey Falter- he keeps overachieving with a great shaped and located FA, everything else is barely average and going to end up faltering on him 103. Matt Waldron- it's plenty interesting and he can be started but I am not particularly interested or believe this will work in the long run 104. JP Sears- he's really ran the gauntlet of difficult matches and came out pretty decent, I can see him being useful again 105. Griffin Canning- it's getting better for him lately and the change/slider combo can work if he can relocate the missing FA velo again 106. Lance Lynn- I'll be damned if he doesn't look semi decent lately, still I doubt it lasts long or is really worth the downside that is possible in any given start 107. Sean Manaea- he's been pretty useful and is missing bats, but I am not sure how long this lasts as his pitch metrics aren't all that good 108. Michael Lorenzen- command isn't really there yet and I am not sure how long he lasts in the rotation once guys start coming back 109. Kyle Gibson- sinker ground ball guy on a pretty good run, the sweep and change semi back it but he's been awfully lucky 110. Daniel Lynch IV- he's actually one to watch, now moving into the rotation, FA looks much different in shape and he has a decent arsenal of pitches 111. Joey Estes- he's been very unlucky and has enough stuff to possibly find footing as a streamer for deep leagues 112. James Paxton- the metrics just look so poor, it's practically a miracle he's maintained a good ERA, the regression looks painful 113. Cooper Criswell- change/sinker guy that keeps it on the ground, nothing exciting as far as stuff but can be spot started 114. Casey Mize- extra velo has amounted to jack squat, the curve and split flash a little as possible options but he simply doesn't toss them much 115. Colin Rea- he's just a solid 5 and diver with really muted upside, but possible appeal in certain situations 116. Andrew Heaney- props to him for being semi useful while missing velo on an already meh FA and humping over a garbage slider 117. Cody Poteet- it's not big stuff but he's looked alright and could be a useful spot guy and defacto #6 for a team with very little depth 118. Blake Walston- pretty decent little 5 pitch mix, even if the FA velo is sub average, could be one to watch on a team that really needs help 119. Cal Quantrill- really odd ranking a rockie but his split is crazy good and even can back it with a good curve and change, GL with everything else though 120. David Peterson- ditching the terrible 4 seam is a start, now sinker forward but will need the curve to return for him to be useful 121. Trevor Rogers- very long odds of him finding his way into being useful again, everything looks crappy outside of getting some chase and grounders 122. Graham Ashcraft- he should probably be in the bullpen, but can eat innings and nobody is pushing him in this system 123. Kenta Maeda- thought maybe he could turn the corner but it's been pretty much same shit/different day 124. Chris Paddack- it's a 93 mph FA which is doing well on the metrics despite missing several ticks and then just loads of meh secondaries 125. Bryse Wilson- give him credit for continuing to churn out good enough innings for this team, but he's not someone I want to rely on for our game 126. Taijuan Walker- it's just too mediocre from a stuff perspective, it may play up better in a multi inning relief role 127. Keaton Winn- looks to be back shortly, and has enough to be useful if it all comes back after layoff 128. Logan T Allen- if he could sit 93+ with FA then it would work better, but he looks to be out of the rotation soon 129. Simeon Woods Richardson- doesn't seem long for the rotation to me, but he can maybe find pockets of viability in right matches 130. Tobias Myers- he really fluctuates in stuff, even from inning to inning, but he does flash a little, esp if change is landing Injury Tier (guys likely expected back in next 4 weeks) Gerrit Cole (top 5+) Bobby Miller (top 30) Max Scherzer (top 30) Gavin Williams (top 30) Merrill Kelly (top 30) Robbie Ray (top 40) Clayton Kershaw (top 40) Yu Darvish (top 50) Luis Garcia (top 50) Shane Baz (top 50) Dean Kremer (top 60) Jeffrey Springs (top 60) Robert Gasser (top 70) Michael Wacha (top 70) Blake Snell (top 70) Chase Silseth (top 80) Edward Cabrera (top 90) Minor League Stash Tier (guys possible in next month) Cade Povich- he has to get a shot soon and has the stuff to be very useful in that park/team context David Festa- crazy good stuff and mostly solid command, has to be up soon for Twins Hurston Waldrep- right there as well and looks ready enough for a shot Max Meyer- such a dumb plan with him but he can absolutely return and be an asset Richard Fitts- watch this guy, he should get a chance in BOS fairly soon and I like his development Caden Dana- I expect him to be up making starts by July Cade Cavalli- still stretching out on rehab but stuff is all back according to reports Logan Evans- one of 'my guys' and is just crushing it in AA, he's the new #6 in SEA or pen weapon Carson Whisenhunt- another one of my favs and will be up fairly soon imo Tink Hence- still believe he's special enough to go right into rotation and give them a big boost Jackson Jobe- here just in case he returns quicker from injury and DET decides to take a shot Chayce McDermott- I love the bat missing but his command could get him in massive trouble Carlos F. Rodriguez- awful start to season but he was the MIL pitcher of the year in minors and he's been better Drew Thorpe- no clue what the plan is with him but they could begin dealing off and calling guys soon Sem Robberse- it's either him or Graceffo that will likely get the next rotation look in STL Landon Knack- remains the de facto #6 for LAD and can likely be streamed if he gets a shot Jake Bloss- one to watch for Astros in AA, really nice pitcher imo and HOU lacks depth Cristian Mena- in AAA and pitching well despite young age and hitters league/park, ARI has no depth Justin Wrobleski- pitching great in AA for Dodgers and the lefty could come up and provide a boost Yilber Diaz- AA Snakes arm that has taken a big step forward, could be a sleeper to emerge for team
    29 points
  2. As a heads up to everyone, I didn't get the time I hoped to devote to the ranks this week. I got the top 125 pounded out...and it's spicy...I think? I haven't looked at any ranks besides what Eno put out last week. Lots of shake-up and more assertive placements based off the stuff I am seeing and not so much the stats already banked. Some bigger moves: Max Fried back into top 10 (I never had a doubt) Skenes into the top 10 Luis Gil at #22 Rodon into the early 40s I am hoping to put a bunch of time tmrw into the blurbs, then final adjustments and tiers on Tues with editing/formatting for posting on WED morning.
    27 points
  3. Dear forum members, As you may have noticed, our forums just got a fresh new look! I've switched from red to green to better fit the brand and added the Bettor In Green logo. This is just the beginning. I'm working around the clock to make this the best community out there for all of us. There’s a lot more coming, so stay tuned for more updates! If you guys have any suggestions on how I can make the forums better, please drop them in this thread!
    26 points
  4. It's looking pretty green! @Bettor In Green has already made some changes in the past days (including an upgrade to the speed of the forum), but he has now also implemented a new look that I find pretty excitng. Give the man some props here please: And consider giving this one a look: https://donate.stripe.com/5kAbKRf7ggVM5jy7sz Well done that man! I'd say the future of the forum is looking pretty good 🙂
    22 points
  5. Good question. Deadline is July 30th so a lot can happen between now and then. I’ll try to work through some scenarios. Marlins: Tanner Scott is a FA after the season, so he gone. Puk has 3 more seasons of control so he probably stays and becomes closer. White Sox: Kopech and Brebbia are likely to get dealt and Leasure should take over. Strikeouts have started to roll in for Leasure of late so he could be interesting. Red Sox: Kenley and Chris Martin are FAs after the season, so Slaten looks like a solid pick up. Nationals: Finnegan is a FA after the season, so we might finally see Hunter Harvey take over. He only has one more year of control, so Nats may entertain dealing him as well for a bigger return. DBacks: Sewald is another impending FA at season end, so if they fall out of contention, he gone. Ginkel probably would take over. Padres: SD doesn’t look like a playoff contender to me, so Preller might look to sell at some point. Suarez is 33 and can opt out after next year, so it seems possible he might get dealt. SD seems to have found baseball’s next elite closer in Estrada, so this one could be juicy. I added him in all my leagues so I’m definitely going to try to manifest it. Pirates: if Pittsburgh falls out of contention, this is probably the year Bednar gets dealt. He’s arbitration eligible now and about to get more expensive for the low budget Pirates. They could opt to keep him though as they plan on competing next year with a full season of Skenes and Jones at the top of their rotation. Holderman might be worth stashing at some point. A’s: I honestly have no idea what Oakland will do with Mason Miller. I guess he’s at a less than 25% chance of getting traded. If he does get dealt, he’d fetch the biggest return ever for a closer. This is a franchise altering decision and whatever they choose, I have faith that they’ll screw it up. Erceg would likely become the guy.
    16 points
  6. Yeah I really enjoyed watching him yesterday. He's gaining confidence and it's a deep/varied arsenal. He always missed bats coming up the ladder and if he continues to sequence like this then he's going to be effective--and suppress hard contact/barrels. 17/21 batters started with a strike yesterday, continuing a positive trend for him. 60/81 pitches for strikes and seldom in the heart. 17 called strikes and 12 whiffs, including a number of borderline pitches that went against him. There is plenty to like here folks.
    12 points
  7. In standard 5x5 Categories in Yahoo, Lindor finished 13th in 2022 and 18th in 2023. His ADP was in the late 20s/early 30s for 2024, depending on platform and time of draft. I'd say Top 20 finishes in consecutive seasons is a perfectly fine "ceiling" for a 3rd round draft pick. In most leagues, there are 12+ human beings drafting. Not everyone can draft the lottery tickets that hit (Elly, Gunnar). Seems a little ridiculous to set up this false dichotomy. Reading your posts in other threads, you seem to have a larger agenda. Namely, letting everyone know how intelligent you are for drafting Elly De La Cruz. Lindor is the latest springboard for sharing your true interests (your genius). As much as you pretend you are omniscient, you are not. On draft day, everyone is playing probabilities and expected value. And that's what drafting is about: acquiring value relative to draft capital (draft position or Auction $). If someone drafted Lindor in 2022 and 2023, they got good value relative to ADP and consecutive Top 20 finishes. All your nonsense about floors and ceilings doesn't really make any sense and isn't worth my time in trying to unpack. We are ultimately just talking about how the market computes expected value, and the probability of outcomes. Data matters for a lot of people. Players supported by larger data sets are probably going to be seen as less volatile. That can be good (predictability), but also bad (less value because of the way the market prices volatility). Now, I know. If one is a super genius like yourself and can 100% predict the breakouts of young stars (who totally never bust), then the size of data sets are meaningless. And I am totally, totally convinced that you hit on all of your predictions and aren't just suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias. Anyway, yes. Every year there are trendy "high ceiling" picks who breakout relative to their ADP. And there are trendy "high ceiling" picks who do nothing and fade into obscurity. This fact alone is pretty uninteresting. Thank you for allowing me to bask in your genius in this Elly De La Cruz Francisco Lindor Outlook Thread. As for Lindor: I know you're not seriously interested in discussing him (again, this is just the latest pretext to tout your genius regarding Elly De La Cruz), but of all the players to pick to lazily and condescendingly say "I told you so," he's an odd choice. Lindor is comfortably on pace for a ~25-20 (7 HR, 6 SB) season with solid counting stats. The only thing holding him down right now is the abysmal Batting Average. Just as a heads up: Lindor has an xBA of .270 and has his lowest K% (15.5) since 2020. His profile looks completely fine and he's due for positive regression. His BABIP is .194 for God's sake. That he's batted .190 and still paced ~25-20 90-80 is a testament to him being a pretty solid fantasy contributor.
    11 points
  8. As long as the transfer input goes smooth, I should have it posted before the day games kick around noon today!
    10 points
  9. I haven't seen much of any info on this guy, but Andre Lipcius 2B/3B/1B (LAD), is hitting .332 with an OPS of 1.011 and has 13 HRs so far--in AAA. He just turned 26 and came over via a trade with DET in the offseason. He was a 3rd pick out of TEN. He got called up late last year and hit .286 in 35 ABs. I have no idea if any of this is remotely real (he's always been a pretty good hitter), but Dodgers went out and got him. He's one of the only guys hitting for the OKC team and how much longer can the Dodgers continue trotting out Lux at 2B and Kike at 3B?? This guy can play both spots and he's been good and particularly hot lately--he's hitting .365 with a .449 OBP in May. Maybe someone to watch in super deep formats?
    10 points
  10. Zero shares of Paul Skenes across 8 leagues….
    10 points
  11. It’s a waste of time trying to change most people’s opinions on Bauer just like politics. Free Bauer
    9 points
  12. Noelvi Marte, serving a suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, is speaking with the media. "In reality, it just appeared in my system. I really don't know how it came about unfortunately. That's as far as I know."
    9 points
  13. Aside from the 3 run homer he did absolutely nothing tonight.
    9 points
  14. Another off the wall Cosmic Baseball The Tri-City Chili Peppers made history on Saturday when they turned off the lights and introduced the world to Cosmic Baseball, Jeff writes. The collegiate summer team in the Coastal Plain League* spent over $100,000 to install a series of black lights at their stadium in Virginia. Every piece of equipment glowed in the dark during the Chili Peppers' 9-4 win over the Greenbrier Knights, believed to be the first sporting event ever played under black lights.
    9 points
  15. This guy sucks, demoted by the lol Mess? Just another overrated prospect. EZ drop everywhere! aMIriGhT?!?/
    9 points
  16. I’m a simple guy. I see St. Steven tout a young pitcher, I add. Welcome aboard, Smellybaker, or whatever your name is!
    9 points
  17. I was just starting his thread! Scrillz always fast on that draw! I've been touting him and following him at least as long as Clegg or anyone out there. This is an exciting arm imo. I was very on top of this call, as most here know. Big time athlete with very advanced feel on the mound. It's a profile I really like and I am looking forward to seeing in action.
    9 points
  18. I baked Angel Hernandez a retirement cake
    9 points
  19. ANGEL HERNANDEZ IS RETIRING!!!
    9 points
  20. Hit the IL early in the season, so technically correct about the Trout 2.0 prediction? I’m gonna give that one to him.
    9 points
  21. A new scouting report from the Twins beat guy via The Athletic from today: "One of the Twins’ defining draft strategies is using mid-round selections on college starters from small schools and boosting their fastball velocity with mechanical tweaks to turn them into legit prospects. Zebby Matthews was a soft-tossing control artist when the Twins picked him in the eighth round out of Western Carolina in 2022, and now he’s topping out at 97 mph. What’s especially impressive about Matthews’ vastly improved raw stuff is that he’s retained his pinpoint control, leading to video game-like numbers. Bumped from High-A Cedar Rapids to Double-A Wichita two weeks ago, he has a 1.34 ERA and 51-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 1/3 total innings this season. Yes, you read that right: 51 strikeouts and one walk. Matthews regularly works in the mid-90s with his fastball, and the 6-foot-5 right-hander can also attack hitters with a low-90s cutter, a swing-and-miss slider and a solid changeup. He’s been without question the breakout Twins prospect of the first seven weeks, rapidly raising his profile from back-end rotation filler to potential No. 3 or even No. 2 starter."
    9 points
  22. Have you thought about posting in the Yahoo comments section? You’d fit in really well over there…
    9 points
  23. User name checks out
    9 points
  24. I'm still pulling for him, although I don't see it happening unfortunately.
    8 points
  25. Run imo. I don't see a ton of possible difference makers on the horizon, and he is one. A legit elite split, solid FA and emerging slider. His toned down delivery has him making tangible progress with his command.
    8 points
  26. I think his private time should stay private. This is a baseball forum. Him playing with it has nothing to do with the discussion. Unless that's where the injury came from? 😂
    8 points
  27. As @Dicka24 said, he made 6 really good starts at the start of 2022 before he got injured and he's been atrocious since then. I am intrigued now for a few reasons. For one, his fastball velo has ticked up a notch from 94.9 mph last year to 95.8 mph this year -- right about where he was at in 2022. Accordingly his fastball Stuff+ is up to 117 this year from 98 last year. Last year, hitters hit .313/.405/.492 on his fastball. They are at .207/.343/.276 against it this year. Additionally (and this is the biggest thing for me), he's throwing a couple new pitches. He's throwing a cutter 13% of the time and a splitter 9% of the time. Both are new offerings. Hitters are 0/6 with 5 K's on the splitter. They've only made contact on 3 of 11 swings against it. And they are only hitting .222/.300/.333 against the cutter. These two pitches have replaced his changeup, which he's thrown 17% of the time throughout his career. His changeup had been his worst pitch by run value, with batters hitting .271/.331/.491 off of it. I think there might be something here with the new pitches, especially if he can hold this velocity and stay healthy. I know that was a worry when he got injured two years ago. I think I remember him saying something about how he thought it was because he just started throwing max effort every pitch and overexerted himself.
    8 points
  28. If I could make a suggestion (or two) I’d like to point out that it is very unlikely that you add and pick up someone who is hot and lights it up ROS at this point in the season. So 1) Don’t look at “who would you rather have ROS” because it is likely to be a revolving door on your team anyway. Instead, look at who can help you the next week or two, then reevaluate if necessary. 2) Don’t chase the 31 year-old dude who is hitting .353 right now. Because you and I know what happens as soon as he’s added. He goes 3-41 the next week. Instead, start looking for guys who had awful starts, were dropped, and who are quietly coming around. That way you get the best part of their season, not the worst. JBell- .242/6 HR overall. But .324/2 HR/14 RBI over last 18 games. Candelario- .224/6 HR overall. But .254/3 HR last 18 games BReynolds- Still hitting .254 on the season. But .282/3 HR/2 SB over last 18 games To me these are the guys to target over the Josh Rojas and Dylan Moores of the world.
    8 points
  29. ive been waiting for this moment for a long LONG time
    8 points
  30. Hi all! I am excited to announce the (soft) launch of StatDugout.com - the online version of some data I have presented in posts here a few times. I created StatDugout.com as a little side project so that I could keep a closer eye on Minor League players for my Dynasty Leagues. I found that it's easy to find blurbs about Minor League players out in various places, but it's a challenge to 1) find lots of data on lots of players in one place and 2) relate that data to actual fantasy baseball performance. StatDugout does just that - it compiles statistics for ALL players (Rookie Ball all the way through MLB), and applies fantasy scoring settings to those stats. Is it a perfect way to predict which guy in AA is the next big star? No! But I've found it to be another useful datapoint in tracking the guys I'm interested in, and the ones I've never heard of! If folks are interested, I would like to continue posting here regularly with the "overall" charts, which reflect the Top 100 MiLB prospects' fantasy scoring trends over the past 4 weeks using 'standard' scoring settings. PERSONALIZED VERSION OF DATA But if you would be interested in something beyond these "overall" charts *tailored to you and your league*, please check out StatDugout.com With StatDugout, you can get a personalized version of this data. An example of this is shown at StatDugout.com/example 1. ⁠You can select only the players YOU own/want to track/want to trade for 2. ⁠You can set your own scoring settings - does your league count QS instead of Wins? OBP instead of AVG? You can do that! 3. ⁠Are you in a Category league instead of Points? We can do that! FEEDBACK AND MORE INFORMATION For more information on this customized version, find info at StatDugout.com/request I appreciate any feedback you might have! I am a novice web-builder and I haven't released this to anyone else out there before, so I'm sure there are some kinks to work out :)
    8 points
  31. Anyone know of a thread that has info on Yordan Alvarez?
    8 points
  32. had to laugh at the baseless slander put on his name in the game day thread yesterday LMAO
    8 points
  33. His last 2 weeks he is 8/51 with 4 runs, and a .214OBP. He's been atrocious so I don't know why you are taking a victory lap here. Those numbers are losing people weeks. Those are 2024 Zack Gelof numbers. I am holding but he's first to go in a 10 team OBP league. He deserves a longer leash which is why I've gritted my teeth through this but his scorching hot May feels like a long time ago.
    7 points
  34. Tobias Myers/MIL is definitely worth a look in 12+ leagues. I saw on the last broadcast that when he went down they completely retooled his mechanics/delivery, shortening his arm path and lengthening his load/stride. It's unlocked several MPH on his FA and even some arm side action. The change up has also picked up a bunch of depth and serious late fade. This doesn't appear to be a total run of good fortune, there is stuff backing it. He is locked into the rotation now. 2 step on the road next week v LAA and SD.
    7 points
  35. Already heading back down...this is like a manual for precisely how-not-to-handle your best prospects.
    7 points
  36. Plan is to start swinging a bat by the end of this week and Casas says he's aiming to be activated off the IL around July 1.
    7 points
  37. So what? Absolutely no reason to apologize to any of us for anything because we know you have a life away from this board. The fact you find time to put out extensive analysis of pitchers is a herculean effort is amazing and greatly appreciated!
    7 points
  38. It's looking pretty green! @Bettor In Green has already made some changes in the past days (including an upgrade to the speed of the forum), but he has now also implemented a new look that I find pretty excitng. Give the man some props here please: And consider giving this one a look: https://donate.stripe.com/5kAbKRf7ggVM5jy7sz Well done that man! I'd say the future of the forum is looking pretty good 🙂 (The man is way too modest so he created this very nice little post in the most far away corner of the board where nobody ever visits unless mortally bored... so I decided to add a bit more noise.)
    7 points
  39. Yes, one suggestion: can you implement the software patch that gets all of my players to stop sucking? Thanks in advance! (But seriously, you are amazing - as is this forum! Thank you so much!)
    7 points
  40. I’m not sure what some of y’all were thinking when you signed up for this ride. This is exactly who he was at the time of the drafts. His range of outcomes remains whiffing so much he gets demoted to AAA in a month to finishing as the #1 overall fantasy player. If you can’t stomach the horrific dry spells he goes through, find someone in your league to take him off your hands. It feels like a Yahoo comments section in this thread.
    7 points
  41. In Mason Miller’s last 13 outings, hitters are 1 for 47 with 33 strikeouts lmao
    7 points
  42. His bat speed and exit velocity is elite even now so the HR will come, again production isn’t linear and this player has a history of starting slow. his batted ball data doesn’t suggest anything to be alarmed of.
    7 points
  43. Just discovered this. Very sad news. I think he could understood, in the most pure, old school sense, that fantasy sports--and forums like this--are ultimately just about fun. It's certainly something we should all take to heart, myself very much included. I didn't like how he was treated in 2023, moreso knowing now it was his last year of life, but that's another matter. The guy rolled with the punches and I respect that. True to his persona and his "craft." The best "heels" are those that expose the shittiness of the (self-anointed) "good" guys. You root against them, in principle, but, at a deeper level, you pull for them. Axe Elf did that. Rest in peace.
    7 points
  44. Yeah the swing changes are real and just general ABs lately have looked rock solid. Towards the end of April they sat him down for a few games while he worked on his swing and since that mini break he's come out; 57PA .298 BA, 8 R, 9 RBI, 4 HR, 1 SB; 1.106 OPS, 40% Ground Balls, 35% Hard Hit, 14% Barrel, .404 xwOBA and now taken hold of the 3B gig and will also spell v lefties for Turang. He's collected 1 appearance at SS, but Adames only takes 1 game off every 3-4 weeks. Ortiz has also started to creep up the order, esp against lefties. Oh, and they happen to start next week with 3 straight games against MIA lefties.
    7 points
  45. Now facing the Marlins this week instead of the Phillies! [insert GIF of Jack Nicholson nodding]
    7 points
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