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Caleb Williams 2024 Outlook


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Is Caleb Williams the undisputed 1.01 in Dynasty Superfex Rookie Drafts? 

I'm in a league where I have 1.01 but am pretty stacked at QB. My gut is to take Williams and Trade one of my QBs. 

Do you see any of the other QBs emerging or is he a slam dunk. I think he is but Marvin Harrison is damn intriguing as well. Your thoughts please. 

Edited by FFCollusion
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7 hours ago, Viktor Vaughn said:

Marvin Harrison Jr. is VERY intriguing. That said, it's Caleb Williams at 1.01.

It's funny because I have 1.02 in a different 1 QB, non-superflex league. I'm assuming that Harrison JR goes #1. If so I'm STRONGLY considering Bowers at 2. I know it seems early but tight ends are a premium, it's a 12 team league 

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8 hours ago, SKEEZER said:

Is Caleb Williams the undisputed 1.01 in Dynasty Superfex Rookie Drafts? 

I'm in a league where I have 1.01 but am pretty stacked at QB. My gut is to take Williams and Trade one of my QBs. 

Do you see any of the other QBs emerging or is he a slam dunk. I think he is but Marvin Harrison is damn intriguing as well. Your thoughts please. 

I'd say yes, 1.01 for Caleb in your format for the high majority of teams.

If you are truly stacked at QB, I certainly would consider trading one of the QB's, getting extra draft picks and/or players, and then you can draft Caleb.

Alternatively, perhaps 1.02 needs QB help and you feel they'll take Caleb...maybe they would trade you 1.02 and something else for the top spot, then you can have their something else + Marvin Harrison Jr. 

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

If you are truly stacked at QB, I certainly would consider trading one of the QB's, getting extra draft picks and/or players, and then you can draft Caleb.

My big wildcard is Justin Fields. I'm not sure what his value will be yet. If he's still a starter somewhere next season then I can probably get a decent pick in return for him. If not then he's nothing more than a stash. 

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I don't know anything about this Dynasty Superflex stuff but it's interesting to speculate Caleb's fantasy prospects next season. If Caleb goes to New England (after a Bears trade down) with no receivers....yikes. If he goes to the Bears, his fantasy prospects are far higher with DJ Moore and Kmet already there. And though I doubt they'd do it, but a big trade up to 1 from Washington would put Caleb in the best fantasy spot with a very nice tree of weapons (McLaurin, Dotson, Thomas Gibson, Samuel). But probably he goes to the Bears.

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I don't know what your team looks like, but if you're weak at WR, Harrison, to me, would be hard not to take. I think regardless, you take Williams and trade QB depth for pieces and/or picks.

12-team roto 6x6 (AVE, OBP, R, RBI, HR, SB) (ERA, WHIP, K, K/9, QS, S+H) keeper forever (have off-season $26 salary cap for only to meet or be under by spring training).

Prices are not locked in yet, but I'm currently below the cap.

C - O'Hoppe, Hererra

1B - Mountcastle

2B - Altuve

SS - Turner

3B - Devers

MI - J. Smith

CI - Vaughn

OF - Langford, Soto, O'Neill

U - Kelenic, Westburg, Chourio

SP - Gallen, Skubal, Ragans, Sale, Bradley

RP - Gaddis, Harvey, Miller, Duran

BENCH - Carroll, N. Marte, Ober, J.Jones, R. Lewis IL

IL - McClain, Casas, Harris

MINORS - Protected

Shaw, Cameniro

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  • FFCollusion changed the title to Caleb Williams 2024 Outlook
On 1/3/2024 at 8:22 AM, SKEEZER said:

It's funny because I have 1.02 in a different 1 QB, non-superflex league. I'm assuming that Harrison JR goes #1. If so I'm STRONGLY considering Bowers at 2. I know it seems early but tight ends are a premium, it's a 12 team league 

I pretty regularly read Michael Salfino on the Athletic. He had an article today that referenced the "tightrope" ankle procedure that Tony Pollard and Rashaad Penny had in the offseason and speculated about whether that surgery could be to blame for what looked like a loss of speed, efficiency, or whatever you want to call it. Bowers had the same surgery this year.

I think it requires more research than just those two guys, who play a position with a notoriously shelf-life to begin with. But if you're getting into the weeds on dynasty players, that might be something to look into further. 

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17 minutes ago, CerealForel said:

Tony Pollard and Rashaad Penny had in the offseason

Could be. Both definitely looked like they lost a step. That being said I doubt it would affect a TE as much as a RB but that's just something we'd have to wait to see at the combine if he's ready. 

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2 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

CJ Stroud's rookie campaign is gonna set expectations sky high for this kid and I'll be very surprised if he's able to surpass Stroud's season.

I agree, and I'm not even sure that Stroud can duplicate that season. He certainly looks the part though. 

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My suspicion is that Fields has shown them enough and that the Bears will trade the pick.  Where he goes is going to be very important to his development.

IMHO a big part of Stroud's success is how well he and Slowik have worked together, the Texans clearing the dead wood on their staff and roster and replacing them with good players, letting Niko and Dell develop, great line play, etc.

Stroud looks like a keeper already in a vacuum but I suspect things would have been worse in Arizona or Carolina or what have you.

If Williams is to develop well the team he goes to will need good infrastructure.  

Edited by JE7HORSEGOD
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12 minutes ago, SKEEZER said:

For their sake, I hope not. He's shown nothing as for a QB. 

I think when people say, "if you take the rushing part out of it" in 2024 you are belying what QB is now.

No one should know that better than a fan of a team that has Jalen Hurts as a QB.  Please note this is not a direct comparison, I fully acknowledge that Hurts is better, but rather one that is just acknowledging the general trend of the position.

Pure "pocket passers" are just not in right now.

And it would be hard to deny that Fields doesn't contribute to some of their wins with his legs.

I'm not certain what the Bears will do, but my gut tells me that they are satisfied enough with his contributions in the running game that they can live with some of his passing game flaws, and by continuing to support him with weapons like Moore and Kmet and pass blockers along the line that they can make a feasible passing game.

And if this were not the case, then personally I think Penix would be a shoe in for first QB taken.  He's by far displayed more clutch moments and better polish as a pocket passer than any other collegiate QB this season.  But he's not even in the discussion because he don't run.

Edited by JE7HORSEGOD
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17 minutes ago, JE7HORSEGOD said:

And if this were not the case, then personally I think Penix would be a shoe in for first QB taken.  He's by far displayed more clutch moments and better polish as a pocket passer than any other collegiate QB this season.  But he's not even in the discussion because he don't run.

I just don't see how they can pass up on a Generational Talent like Williams, especially when Fields is their only other option. I believe it would be one of the biggest mistakes in Football History. 

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The QB bust likelihood is so much higher than it is for Harrison Jr I'm not so sure Caleb is the clear choice here. Harrison Jr gets talked about like a once a decade type talent. That gives you a WR1 for 10 years. Too much volatility with QBs IMO. Obviously team needs factor in, but that's my take in a vacuum. 

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30 minutes ago, SKEEZER said:

I just don't see how they can pass up on a Generational Talent like Williams, especially when Fields is their only other option. I believe it would be one of the biggest mistakes in Football History. 

It was like 3 posts ago you were saying you'd be surprised if he surpassed Stroud and now he's a generational talent.

IDK man.  This year was not a strong indictment on his abilities.  Basically since he won the Heisman it's been a mixed bag.  It had been an unequivocal step back since he lost the PAC12 Championship game.

He'll probably be number one overall.  But I don't think "Generational Talent" is apt.  Maybe a majority favorite positional number one in a deep class.

Edited by JE7HORSEGOD
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1 hour ago, JE7HORSEGOD said:

was like 3 posts ago you were saying you'd be surprised if he surpassed Stroud and now he's a generational talent

NO I DIDN'T

I said I'm not sure that Stroud can duplicate his own rookie season. Please don't post false information. 

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3 hours ago, JE7HORSEGOD said:

Personally I prefer JD in the long run.  But I am often wrong on QB prospects.

Same here. I've watched JD closely this year (full disclosure, I'm an LSU fan). Watching him routinely dismantle SEC defenses is worth a premium for my money and a considerable one at that. Caleb regressed some this year which is concerning given how weak Pac-12 defense were. Obviously he wont go before Caleb, but Daniels should definitely and unequivocally be taken before Maye, Penix and Nix.......... 

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41 minutes ago, SKEEZER said:

NO I DIDN'T

I said I'm not sure that Stroud can duplicate his own rookie season. Please don't post false information. 

Okay.

3 hours ago, lolcopter said:

CJ Stroud's rookie campaign is gonna set expectations sky high for this kid and I'll be very surprised if he's able to surpass Stroud's season.

 

3 hours ago, SKEEZER said:

I agree, and I'm not even sure that Stroud can duplicate that season. 

One would assume "I agree" meant that you agree with the statement, "I'll be very surprised if he's (Williams) able to surpass Stroud's season."  But maybe I'm missing something.

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QBs are a dime a dozen in fantasy. It's probably the position that fantasy least reflects reality, in all of fantasy sports. Great fantasy QBs don't have to be great in real life. So the appeal of a "generational talent" at the QB spot doesn't wow me that much. Not to mention QB prospects in recent memory have been about as predictable as a coin flip. If you draft a QB in dynasty and he turns out to be pedestrian, you're screwed, he's useless. If you draft a WR/RB and they turn out to be pedestrian, they're still serviceable. I'll take the athletic freak top prospect WR any day of the week.

For context I think Caleb is overhyped. I'm surprised people aren't more worried about his lack of performance against top defenses. And I really hope my Bears don't draft him. They already spent 3 years breaking down the hype and confidence of Fields, now they can let him cook post hype with no pressure. To draft Caleb would be to start the process all over again, and the results will be the same.

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