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JUNE SP RANKS


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Well guys, we are in the thick of it now. Dog days are rapidly approaching and besides common variance, we mostly know what we are getting with the arms we have. Data has stabilized and the stuff is going to be largely static moving forward. Some guys will return, but there won't be a bounty of difference makers--if they can make it back with all their stuff intact. I attempted to integrate the guys working back from injury into the ranks last month and generally didn't like how it turned out, so I decided to make an injury tier with only guys I project to possibly get back in the next 4 weeks or so. I did include a few currently injured pitchers into the list, but only a few that I had a higher level of confidence in for a more seamless return. It certainly matters what a guy has done thus far, or what their track record is--so long as the stuff and command are present. I always say it, but guys have rough turns and sometimes it lingers. I won't overreact to smaller samples without evidence that portends to a possible skill degradation. I watch a lot of games and tons of pitcher specific tape to try and marry up results (or lack thereof) with the metric data of their repertoire. This list represents my level best attempt at gauging value for the next month--basically to the AS break. As per usual, it is points league forward but can be generally applied to all formats of play. Thanks for reading!
 
I really enjoy being able to produce these and thanks very much to Mr BIG @Bettor In Green for the platform and the mods for keeping this place in order!
 
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TOEING THE RUBBER RANKS by Steve Ulrich (St. Steven)
 
 
THE JUNE SP RANKS
 
1. Zack Wheeler- just fantastic and the team is rolling
2. Tarik Skubal- some softer contact hits lately doesn't dissuade me at all
3. Corbin Burnes- might be close to finding that true ace gear now
4. Luis Castillo- he looks ready for his usual summer
5. Tyler Glasnow- just stay healthy and the results will continue
6. Max Fried- it's scary that he's still dialing it in and getting mostly great results
 
7. Shota Imanaga- they messed with his routine, so I don't think it was all regression
8. Logan Webb- we're getting close to him beginning a great run
9. Paul Skenes- nobody had him higher last month and I am fine with that being the case again
10. Freddy Peralta- the stuff is all plenty present and command will come
11. Chris Sale- some variance got to him last turn, everything else was there
12. Joe Ryan- HRs are part of the package, stuff is well up and he will bounce back
13. Cole Ragans- just missing a little bit on secondaries, he can cover it up until they fully return
14. Aaron Nola- the team context and his floor raise the overall profile greatly for me
15. Luis Gil- I bumped him up last month on a hunch that command was sharpening, now it's a full on breakout
16. George Kirby- inconsistencies aside, he's on the precipice of a big time summer run imho
17. Jared Jones- I have plenty of faith that he can now adjust, stuff is too amazing
18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto- this might be slightly unfair, his floor is super valuable
 
19. Sonny Gray- he's gassing himself by 5th inning too often and it has me a little nervous
20. Garrett Crochet- this guy never looks tired, absolute horse even when battling command a little
21. Pablo Lopez- it will almost certainly come all the way back, but can't ignore issues
22. Justin Steele- great buy low if some owners are only following the lines
23. Dylan Cease- same here, stuff is all there just battling some variance
24. Logan Gilbert- he's really close to getting it all together, but still has later game issues
25. Tanner Houck- what a rock for the rotation with killer floor/ceiling combo and grounders galore
26. Kyle Bradish- I think the floor/ceiling combo will provide very good value on this team
27. Kevin Gausman- he goes through periods like this and usually finds his way out
 
28. MacKenzie Gore- hopefully folks listened from the beginning, his stuff has leapt forward and results are showing
29. Jack Flaherty- I still think consistency will be a problem, but can't deny how sweet the breakers look
30. Ranger Suarez- regression should not be a major deterrent here, just needs good health fortune
31. Grayson Rodriguez- the stuff makes me want to go higher but command isn't fully ready quite yet
32. Bryan Woo- this is tricky but I tend to believe this arm stuff is just a phase and his stuff/command/team is worth the risk
33. Walker Buehler- it's not been pretty but the quality of his stuff gives me faith he comes out of this soon enough
34. Framber Valdez- track record is so strong and makes me think buying low is gonna net a true difference maker
 
35. Seth Lugo- His arsenal/command can fend off some of the regression and I think he keeps things rolling well enough
36. Nick Lodolo- I am a big fan even if FA is more average and home park is rough, secondaries and now sinker are really strong
37. Jose Berrios- getting back on board a bit, just have to deal with usual highs and lows
38. Bryce Miller- good feeling he is ready to really breakout, split and sweeper are so close to emerging
39. Carlos Rodon- team context is really pushing him, but stuff is flashing vintage type levels fueling my optimism
40. Zac Gallen- groin injury stinks but not seeing it's the severe variety, stuff isn't fully there but he can be effective thru it
41. Nick Pivetta- this rank puts him in the circle of trust and his stuff/pitching game plan gives me confidence
42. Ryan Pepiot- the breakout was coming before the IL pause, I believe he's back on that trajectory now and expect a big rise up
43. Ronel Blanco- the secondaries are good enough to believe we can depend on him for the duration
 
44. Zack Littell- gets far too little respect, command marvels with above average stuff are the new market inefficiencies to profit on
45. Hunter Greene- it's such a mixed bag, FA is much better, slider has backed up, new pitches have actual promise
46. Zach Eflin- hopefully the little pause gets him back on track, he's an easy buy for me right now
47. Justin Verlander- getting by right now and might have another gear--given where he is with his arm, but lack of bat missing dings him
48. Kutter Crawford- he can probably adjust back now, given his arsenal depth but the crude stuff is more of an above average guy
49. Nathan Eovaldi- health always proves elusive with him, but he can easily pitch another 20 spots up with his stuff
50. Cristopher Sanchez- sinker is really showing out right now, I think he'll be a big value moving forward if that is static
51. Reese Olson- sharp contender to fly up this list, dude has a 1.76 ERA since the end of last Aug and awesome breakers/offspeed
52. Reynaldo Lopez- proving the 'real deal' moniker I gave him, I see no reason his pitches can't keep this up unless he tires
 
53. Tanner Bibee- FA retooling has legit appeal and tangible results, secondaries were always plenty good
54. Michael King- can he really hold up, I want to believe but it's been too inconsistent from start-to-start, upside is big though
55. Yusei Kikuchi- the command has been fine, so I will assume this has just been some variance and he can get going again
56. Jesus Luzardo- hard one here, the FA is down but command is better, likely a worthy trade-off for now
57. Jordan Hicks- I'll gladly take what he's putting out and now the schedule should begin to ease up a tick
58. Nestor Cortes- floor is sort of low and ceiling is just high enough, esp given the team context
59. Bailey Ober- this is likely too much of an overreaction, still it's a snapshot of current value, but I expect him to pull out of this soon
60. Brandon Pfaadt- he's not someone I'd be actively seeking out, even if his numbers on the whole look solid
61. Marcus Stroman- getting the secondaries straightened out has aided immensely in his viability resurgence, as has the team
62. Brayan Bello- it's been mostly disappointing, regardless of possible excuses, the sinker simply isn't good enough right now
63. Gavin Stone- guy must really live right to get the good fortune he has, but he has executed and that's important
64. Ryan Weathers- he's quietly on a pretty good run here, bat missing has really ticked up and it appears mostly legit to me
 
65. Javier Assad- I'd attempt to extract whatever remaining value you can, I can't see how this lasts--it almost never does
66. Braxton Garrett- the stuff is still not quite back but he can really pitch and mix it up, plenty useful moving forward
67. Ben Brown- this might be too aggressive because it's really only one great pitch and a barely average FA that has been lucky
68. Mitch Keller- it's been better but also lucky, he is just good enough within the context of the pitching landscape to provide value
69. Erick Fedde- have to think he ends up dealt to a much better situation and he can absolutely be viable with his solid stuff/command
70. Hunter Brown- FA is well up in velo and well down in usage and results have followed, of course I am pleased and think he can be useful
71. Jose Soriano- I am definitely still onboard here, the stuff is too damn good and the command can still just creep forward a tick
72. Christian Scott- situation necessitated a drop but I am mostly encouraged by what I saw, survived fine when stuff was off and that's a good signal
73. Albert Suarez- stuff is more than solid and he seems like a barrel dancer, looks like some possible stay power on this team
74. Chris Bassitt- we may be at the cliff now, perhaps, but he's got such a deep arsenal that he can get going again, even with diminished stuff
75. Luis Severino- command is too shattershot for me to get on board with right now even if he can sometimes flash a little
76. Taj Bradley- plenty of theoretical upside here, just given the crude stuff and team, so I'd be more than fine taking a shot at them figuring it out
77. Jon Gray- he's here despite showing mostly pretty well most of year, just unsure how long the injury sidelines him but it seems minor
 
78. Tylor Megill- way more good than bad, so a guy I'd be keeping around and hoping he can retain a healthy stretch for a change
79. Jordan Montgomery- he may just sort of stink now, but there is enough of a track record that you can expect him to get out of this
80. Brady Singer- is he '22 or '23 is the question but it's probably just in between--which is where his xStats reside and I say regression is coming
81. Aaron Civale- heading out of the rough schedule stretch and his luck will improve, I'd be surprised if he wasn't an asset pending the health cooperates
82. Patrick Sandoval- I really like some of the changes I am seeing with him, nerfing the FA and the new sweeper appears to be a legit weapon offering
83. Charlie Morton- some turns are just going to get away from him, but overall I think he's going to be plenty useful enough and has enough upside
84. Mitchell Parker- I actually like quite a bit of what I am seeing from him, the split has emerged and can be that pivotal 3rd pitch
85. Spencer Schwellenbach- I've been a fan of his for awhile and think there's enough here for him to pitch up the list--even with a tough schedule
86. Jameson Taillon- I just don't think he's as good as some of the numbers/metrics suggest, he's definitely better than last year and has utility
87. Adam Mazur- seems like more of a mid-rotation type that might have some inconsistent results as he cuts his teeth, slider is plus
88. Spencer Turnball- I don't like his FA much but all the other four secondaries have really flashed and he needs to be reinserted back into rotation
 
89. Dane Dunning- he's pretty solid and suddenly missing bats/generating whiffs despite stuff limitations, good enough situation to roll with him for a bit
90. Tyler Anderson- just continues beating back regression with insane change and good locations but the correction will likely not be much fun
91. Kyle Harrison- upside is simply too minimal and downside is too rough, he needs some big adjustments to regain viability
92. Alec Marsh- he's just interesting enough with his stuff and this team to possibly warrant streaming appeal
93. Triston McKenzie- been a mixed bag lately and I just can't see him lasting at this point, but he can be used in plus matches
94. Spencer Arrighetti- he's been pretty good as of late and I think he is trending towards being able to be trusted in the right matchups
95. Ben Lively- remarkable numbers for the sinker ball specialist, even the sweeper and change look legit but I can't believe it's sustainable
96. Jordan Wicks- 3 rehab starts in and nearly stretched out, he has an elite change but no clue if they boot Brown or go to a 6 man for a bit
97. Andrew Abbott- the obvious regression has begun and I don't know if he can remain truly viable much longer, he needs to miss bats again in a hurry
98. Cole Irvin- ceiling isn't all that great but he should be able to provide some consistency and floor in this situation
99. Luis Medina- I am moderately intrigued because the FA has good velo and a different shape than last year, I like the curve with high spin and slider
100. Jake Irvin- his control is plus along with a very good curve, I think he'll get punished more because he's too middle/middle with other meh pitches
101. Frankie Montas- he's eating some innings but outside of a FA velo bump, nothing besides a sparsely used slider looks remotely decent
102. Bailey Falter- he keeps overachieving with a great shaped and located FA, everything else is barely average and going to end up faltering on him
103. Matt Waldron- it's plenty interesting and he can be started but I am not particularly interested or believe this will work in the long run
 
104. JP Sears- he's really ran the gauntlet of difficult matches and came out pretty decent, I can see him being useful again
105. Griffin Canning- it's getting better for him lately and the change/slider combo can work if he can relocate the missing FA velo again
106. Lance Lynn- I'll be damned if he doesn't look semi decent lately, still I doubt it lasts long or is really worth the downside that is possible in any given start
107. Sean Manaea- he's been pretty useful and is missing bats, but I am not sure how long this lasts as his pitch metrics aren't all that good
108. Michael Lorenzen- command isn't really there yet and I am not sure how long he lasts in the rotation once guys start coming back
109. Kyle Gibson- sinker ground ball guy on a pretty good run, the sweep and change semi back it but he's been awfully lucky
110. Daniel Lynch IV- he's actually one to watch, now moving into the rotation, FA looks much different in shape and he has a decent arsenal of pitches
111. Joey Estes- he's been very unlucky and has enough stuff to possibly find footing as a streamer for deep leagues
112. James Paxton- the metrics just look so poor, it's practically a miracle he's maintained a good ERA, the regression looks painful
113. Cooper Criswell- change/sinker guy that keeps it on the ground, nothing exciting as far as stuff but can be spot started
114. Casey Mize- extra velo has amounted to jack squat, the curve and split flash a little as possible options but he simply doesn't toss them much
 
115. Colin Rea- he's just a solid 5 and diver with really muted upside, but possible appeal in certain situations
116. Andrew Heaney- props to him for being semi useful while missing velo on an already meh FA and humping over a garbage slider
117. Cody Poteet- it's not big stuff but he's looked alright and could be a useful spot guy and defacto #6 for a team with very little depth
118. Blake Walston- pretty decent little 5 pitch mix, even if the FA velo is sub average, could be one to watch on a team that really needs help
119. Cal Quantrill- really odd ranking a rockie but his split is crazy good and even can back it with a good curve and change, GL with everything else though
120. David Peterson- ditching the terrible 4 seam is a start, now sinker forward but will need the curve to return for him to be useful
121. Trevor Rogers- very long odds of him finding his way into being useful again, everything looks crappy outside of getting some chase and grounders
122. Graham Ashcraft- he should probably be in the bullpen, but can eat innings and nobody is pushing him in this system
123. Kenta Maeda- thought maybe he could turn the corner but it's been pretty much same shit/different day
124. Chris Paddack- it's a 93 mph FA which is doing well on the metrics despite missing several ticks and then just loads of meh secondaries
125. Bryse Wilson- give him credit for continuing to churn out good enough innings for this team, but he's not someone I want to rely on for our game
126. Taijuan Walker- it's just too mediocre from a stuff perspective, it may play up better in a multi inning relief role
127. Keaton Winn- looks to be back shortly, and has enough to be useful if it all comes back after layoff
128. Logan T Allen- if he could sit 93+ with FA then it would work better, but he looks to be out of the rotation soon
129. Simeon Woods Richardson- doesn't seem long for the rotation to me, but he can maybe find pockets of viability in right matches
130. Tobias Myers- he really fluctuates in stuff, even from inning to inning, but he does flash a little, esp if change is landing
 
Injury Tier (guys likely expected back in next 4 weeks)
Gerrit Cole (top 5+)
Bobby Miller (top 30)
Max Scherzer (top 30)
Gavin Williams (top 30)
Merrill Kelly (top 30)
Robbie Ray (top 40)
Clayton Kershaw (top 40)
Yu Darvish (top 50)
Luis Garcia (top 50)
Shane Baz (top 50)
Dean Kremer (top 60)
Jeffrey Springs (top 60)
Robert Gasser (top 70)
Michael Wacha (top 70)
Blake Snell (top 70)
Chase Silseth (top 80)
Edward Cabrera (top 90)
 
Minor League Stash Tier (guys possible in next month)
Cade Povich- he has to get a shot soon and has the stuff to be very useful in that park/team context
David Festa- crazy good stuff and mostly solid command, has to be up soon for Twins
Hurston Waldrep- right there as well and looks ready enough for a shot
Max Meyer- such a dumb plan with him but he can absolutely return and be an asset
Richard Fitts- watch this guy, he should get a chance in BOS fairly soon and I like his development
Caden Dana- I expect him to be up making starts by July
Cade Cavalli- still stretching out on rehab but stuff is all back according to reports
Logan Evans- one of 'my guys' and is just crushing it in AA, he's the new #6 in SEA or pen weapon
Carson Whisenhunt- another one of my favs and will be up fairly soon imo
Tink Hence- still believe he's special enough to go right into rotation and give them a big boost
Jackson Jobe- here just in case he returns quicker from injury and DET decides to take a shot
Chayce McDermott- I love the bat missing but his command could get him in massive trouble
Carlos F. Rodriguez- awful start to season but he was the MIL pitcher of the year in minors and he's been better
Drew Thorpe- no clue what the plan is with him but they could begin dealing off and calling guys soon
Sem Robberse- it's either him or Graceffo that will likely get the next rotation look in STL
Landon Knack- remains the de facto #6 for LAD and can likely be streamed if he gets a shot
Jake Bloss- one to watch for Astros in AA, really nice pitcher imo and HOU lacks depth
Cristian Mena- in AAA and pitching well despite young age and hitters league/park, ARI has no depth
Justin Wrobleski- pitching great in AA for Dodgers and the lefty could come up and provide a boost
Yilber Diaz- AA Snakes arm that has taken a big step forward, could be a sleeper to emerge for team

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1 hour ago, WatchMeWHIP said:

Fair to say you'd rather stash Baz than Christian Scott?

Baz has the higher theoretical upside, but just hasn't pitched hardly at all in years. The stuff has been very much up/down--as you might expect. He's only going 4 IP currently and battling command. I saw enough from Scott that he's squarely in that back-end of the top 50 territory, it was just circumstances that pushed him back and not fully knowing what the plan is for him. I would take Scott ROS right now.

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16 minutes ago, Dude said:

Appreciate the list and great insights on each player.  I have room to stash one guy, who's best option for ROS; Kershaw, Ray, Povich, or Festa?

I'd try Povich first to get the look-see and how he responds. Ray is still just in the beginnning stages of his return, but I really like him ROS.

IF you are limited to one transaction, then Ray would be the grab. Just have to hope the time he has taken pays off and he doesn't encounter any setbacks.

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3 hours ago, Phis33 said:

First!

Tenth!

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10 team Roto 7x7    (OBP, R, HR, RBI, SB, XBH, PA  /  W, Sv, K, ERA, QS, IP, GIDP)

1st place,  +1 pt

C- Fry (C/1B/OF);  1B- VinnieP;  2B- Altuve;  SS- Abrams;  3B- DeLaCruz (3B/SS);

OF- Soto,   BrReynolds,  JRooker,   Friedl,    HRamos;      

MI- DeJong;   CI-  Westburg (2B/3B);      U- JDMartinez,     

bench-    

SP-  Burnes,    Castillo,   Crochet,   Verlander,    Skenes,    Baz;

RP- Clase,    Holmes,  Phillips,   Neris,  MMiller (SP/RP)

IL-    Casas,     Kershaw,    DWilliams,    Scherzer  

RIP-  Strider

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Posted (edited)

Andrew Abbott at 97

Jordan Montgomery 67  

crazy 

Pollack - I’m gonna be quick today. You can drop Jordan Montgomery if you haven’t done so yet. Today’s outing against the Giants returned 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 61 pitches and let’s be frank – if you can’t come away from a trio of matchups against the Marlins, Mets, and Giants with production, you shouldn’t be rostered

Edited by shakestreet
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, shakestreet said:

crazy

OT:  You know what is crazy?  Your current avatar that, cause of the round shape of avatars here cutting stuff off, reads "ASEBAL ISN'T ORING."  🤣

Sorry, couldn't resist.  Add some extra border around it and that will cut off and leave more of your avatar intact maybe?

Edited by Big Bat Theory
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mr Awaken Up said:

Gore 28th??

Actually think Gore is pushing top 15 status soon, his numbers haven’t reflected how well he’s done. He has had a rough stress of hard teams to face but that’s about ready to be corrected in the second half.

in the words of Nick Pollack he’s “dope and makes us feel dope”

he’s a buy low still imo.

Edited by Adam_Henderson
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2 hours ago, herschel said:

2+ ip and 5bbs (and counting) on pablo?  any fear hes hiding an injury?

It's always in the back of your mind w/ Pablo. I didn't notice any dip in stuff reported, so it's basically the up/down pattern we've seen from him these 2 months.

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41 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:

@St. Steven  it sounds like Max Meyer will be called back up soon.  Approximately where would you put him in your rankings?

Some where in the 70s feels about right. I don't weigh his AAA work all that heavily, I think he can be an asset for the next few months.

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15 hours ago, herschel said:

2+ ip and 5bbs (and counting) on pablo?  any fear hes hiding an injury?

Mentioned in his thread but his walks were 2 each to Soto, Judge and Stanton. Probably just nibbling.

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6 minutes ago, RonnieMac said:

Will Bello improve or is the "next Pedro" just a bit overrated?

I think he'll get back on track, but it's very unlikely he takes a real step forward like I had hoped. The slider just hasn't progressed much and the sinker has backed up (and been pretty unlucky). The change is still a wipe-out offering and he really keeps the ball on the ground well, so he will have value--there just isn't much ceiling.

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